ドイツ人と日本人が「ロールオーバー」を演じています!  by ビル・ホルター 2016年2月9日

Germans and Japanese Play "Rollover"!
Posted February 9th, 2016 at 1:18 PM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Bill Holter.


(訳者: ロールオーバーとは、資金の回転調達◆為替、先物などの取引の決済日を他の決済日に先送りすること。また、1981年に上映された映画のタイトル。邦題では「華麗なる陰謀」)

Dear CIGAs,


After my last article we received two logical questions from readers. The first one pertaining to “gaps” and the Deutsche Bank derivative exposure, the second pertaining to Japan’s strong currency with negative yields while the debt to GDP levels are astronomical. Below is the first question;


“In the past you have warned about derivative exposure and now gapping.


One of my worst fears as a day trader on a derivatives platform is gapping. That is why I will never have an open position when the market is closed. Even then, that is not guaranteed.


A lot of trading platforms got hammered when the Swiss franc was revalued.


Could you put out a letter for your readers explaining why for example the Deutsche Bank derivatives exposure is so dangerous in terms of gapping.”


In my opinion, this is a very astute observation. The reader will not carry overnight positions because as he says, “the Swiss franc revaluation killed many” within less than 10 minutes of the markets opening. That said, even if not in any overnight position and the great leveling moment comes, how does anyone know if their broker even survives the carnage …with YOUR MONEY? But this is another topic entirely.


As for Deutsche Bank, we know they have been recently screaming about negative interest rates hurting their operations. This very well may be so, but it is my opinion it is not so much negative interest rates killing them. I believe it is off balance sheet derivatives. Not only has DB denied any problem, the German finance minister has now chimed in with reassurance! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-09/german-finance-minister-joins-db-ceo-says-not-worried-about-deutsche-bank Where have we seen this before? Does Bear Stearns or Lehman Bros. ring a bell? Doth the Germans protest too much? By the way, their credit spreads are stretching out, and stock price has now taken out the 2008 lows!


The second question regarding confusion of Japan’s 10 yr. yield hitting 0% and their currency strengthening while being the fiscal basket case of the world is also a good one but very simple to explain. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-08/japanese-10y-yield-hits-zero-first-time-ever-yen-strongest-2014-stocks-crash. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 260%, if you add in corporate debt it approaches 400%, how could they not have a crashing currency and 20% (or higher) interest rates? The simple answer is this, the global “carry trade” is unwinding. The Japanese yen was a major tool used to create and float the carry trade which inflated assets. Now, as asset prices are falling, this trade is being unwound (think of it as a margin call). Previous yen that were borrowed are now being bought back to settle the trade. This was a synthetic short similar to the dollar short being covered. A quick question and very short answer, why would anyone in their right mind invest money for 10 years at zero percent in a currency who’s issuer publicly states their goal is to grossly debase? Answer: BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO!


The problem is this, as the yen strengthens from short covering it is putting more and more of these carry trades under water and actually forcing more sales of assets and more buying of yen. This will end in one of two ways …both badly! Either the trades get unwound with asset prices collapsing and the yen at truly stupid levels, or someone “fails” and the derivatives chain breaks. I would personally bet the farm on option number two.


While writing this, CNBC is parading guest after guest as to whether a recession is “likely” …IDIOTS! This is not about a “recession”, this is about whether the entire system fails or not! Can Deutsche Bank “fail” while being counter party to over $70 trillion in derivatives? Can even a small counter party fail without causing a cascade? Just look at the volatility in markets, junk bonds are collapsing, credit spreads blowing out, currencies making wild swings, $7 trillion worth of sovereign debt trading at negative interest rates …not to mention stock markets moving from all time highs into bear markets within just a couple of months. (While editing this, CNBC is actually questioning if DB is a “one off” situation? Is this even possible? Do they even understand what they are asking?!!!)


Do you think “someone” might have lost some money since January 1st? Enough to bankrupt them? THIS is the question! The answer in my opinion is this, there are dead bodies strewn all over the place yet are hidden from view. They are being hidden from view because if they are seen, the entire system comes into question with answers being delivered within probably a 48 hour period. The answer of course will be the biggest “gaps” in all of history …both in price AND time! By this I am saying the re-opening gaps will be larger in percentage and the time to reopen longer than ever before.


Whether you want to see it or not, the financial system is in a forced unwinding. It took some 70 years to build this great credit edifice, when it goes it may take less than 48 hours to take it ALL down. To finish I leave you with a short clip of what the collapse might look like …and how quickly it can get there! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUsj7EdZigM


Standing watch,

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome! bholter@hotmail.com


ホルター - シンクレア コラボレーション

にほんブログ村 経済ブログへ

来ました、崩壊が始まりました。 by ビル・ホルター 2016年1月18日


(0:28 - 5:21)




I:デリバティブ市場や、ウォール街によって大きくレバレッジをきかせた博打や、アウトスタンディング・マージン・ローンを基にマージンコールについて考えた時、、、、今私達はその崩壊を目の当たりにしていますが、デリバティブ市場におけるレバレッジが大きくかけられた賭けのようなものを考えた時、、、私はこの間「big short」という映画を観たんですが、2007年、2008年に経験したことと同じことが今起きていますよね。しかし、今回は2008年にステロイドを打ったものです。何も変わっていません。何も解決されませんでした。悪いやつら、ウォール街の犯罪者たちのうち誰一人として刑務所行きになりませんでした。

出来る能力は残っていません。。。一つ面白いことがあって、ヒューゴ・サリナス・プライス(Hugo Salinas Price)が自身のコミュニティに注意を喚起したのですが、ブルームバーグが外国の中央銀行が投げ捨てている準備金の額、主に国債のことですが、それを継続的に計算していたのですが、12月8日だったと思うんですが、ブルームバーグはこの計算をすることを止めました。それは1兆ドルです。1兆ドルに及ぶ国債がキャッシュのために売られたのですが、コレに対して何の簿記的な記録を財務省は行っていないんです。では、これらの国債はどこへ行ったのでしょうか?誰が買ったんでしょうか?誰がこれらの中央銀行にキャッシュを投入したんでしょうか?私が聞いた中で一番コレが正しいと思った推測は、ロブ・カービーが言っていたことですが、ほぼ確実に「為替安定基金」です。彼等の簿記情報の内容は秘密となっており、公開されていません。しかし、私はそれらの国債が行った先は「為替安定基金」以外には考えられない、と私は考えてます。





にほんブログ村 経済ブログへ

そして”誰が”死んだのかもまだ聞いていないだけです。 by ビル・ホルター 2015年8月25日


Digging deeper, what do you suppose has happened over the last few days in the derivatives arena? There have been HUGE gains and losses in the $trillions or even $10′s of trillions! Notice I wrote “gains and losses”? How would you like to be an institution with a losing position of some sort …hedged so there would be no loss …only to find out your counterparty cannot pay? Do you suppose this might have already happened? I can almost guarantee it already has and in many different markets, we just haven’t heard about it nor “who” died. In reality, it doesn’t matter “who died”. Just as someone drowning hangs on to their rescuer, the derivatives chain is connected from start to finish and loops back where the “start connects with the end”. In other words, when losers cannot pay, the gleeful winners get the bad news they are also losers. If one drowns, they all drown!



にほんブログ村 経済ブログへ

悪いクレジットを良いクレジットにすることは出来ない!by ビル・ホルター 2015年8月21日

訳者: 以下はおととい金曜日にジム・シンクレアのブログに掲載されていたビル・ホルターの記事をから一部抜粋したものです。


Bad Credit Cannot Be Made Good!
Posted August 21st, 2015 at 5:11 PM (CST) by Daniel Duval & filed under Bill Holter.

by ビル・ホルター 2015年8月21日

I wrote in 2008, “this is a crisis of ‘solvency’, more liquidity cannot turn bad loans into good ones”. Now, six years later it turns out this thought process was 100% correct. Other than financial assets being “saved”, all of the QE, all of the additional debt taken on by various sovereign treasuries has done nothing to the real economy of Main St.. The plan was to inflate asset values and this would spill onto Main St.. Even mainstream media when interviewing the talking heads of Wall St. and the liars out of Washington are questioning this. Heck, Peter Fisher (past chief of the plunge protection team Martin) this morning brought this up on his own. He said the policy of inflating assets has not worked and cannot work. The five plus year experiment has failed. One does not have to look far or even “into” the bogus reporting of unemployment to see what is happening. All you need to do is look at oil and Dr. copper. They are both crashing and now threating to break trend lines going back to the 1980′s.

2008年に私は「これは’支払能力’の危機なんです。より多くのリクイディティを市場に入れたところで、悪いローンを良いローンに変化させることは出来ません。」と書きました。そしてそれから6年経ち、この考え方が100%正しかったことが明らかになりました。金融資産が’救済’される以外に、全ての量的緩和、様々な国債購入によって行われた追加の借金は、メイン・ストリート(ウォール・ストリート以外の社会の大半の経済)に対して何の効果ももたらしませんでした、、、計画は、資産価値をつり上げればそれがメイン・ストリートにも行き渡る、というものでした、、、最近は大手メディアでさえ、ウォール街の良く喋るヤツらや、ワシントンの嘘つき達をインタビューする際に、この点を疑問視しています。今朝はピーター・フィッシャー(急落保護チームの元チーフ マーティン)が自分からこれについて話し始めましたよ。資産価値をつり上げる政策は何も解決しませんでしたし、今後も解決しません、と彼は言いました。5年数ヶ月に渡る実験は失敗しました。本当に何が起きているのか、そんなに遠くまで見渡す必要もありませんし、インチキ失業率レポートを見る必要もありません。原油と銅をみればいいだけです。これらは両方崩壊しており、1980年代からのトレンドラインを割る恐れが出てきました。

In as few words as possible, we are witnessing a credit collapse. These two commodities (along with many others) are crashing NOT because currencies are so well foundationed or strong and “going up”. No, we are watching them crash because of shrinking demand. This is also confirmed by trade numbers (or lack of). We also see freight rates imploding all over the world due to the same lack of demand and trade. This should tell you something in very loud and very clear terms, the “reflation” efforts have failed miserably!



(訳者: 昨日読んだ記事で、ジム・シンクレアと親交のあるエゴン・ヴォン・グレヤーズが「嵐がやってきましたが、今後2、3ヶ月でこの嵐がハリケーンに変わってゆく可能性がある。」と言っていました。紙資産をまだ持っておられる方々、お気をつけ下さい。。。ま、実際にはそんなもんで済まないですけどね。。。ジム・ロジャーズが言うには「第三次世界大戦に発展する可能性があるくらいの、人類史上最大の金融崩壊」がやってくるそうですから。その間を乗り切るために食べ物をどうやって確保するのか、真剣に考えて備えてください。)

にほんブログ村 経済ブログへ

爆発は核ではありませんでした by ビル・ホルター 2015年8月14日

Explosion Not A Nuke
Posted August 14th, 2015 at 7:22 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under Bill Holter.


Dear CIGAs,


Thank you everyone for your responses to yesterday’s article, there were well over 500 to which Jim and I have responded to. I spoke this morning with a nuclear physicist to get her opinion which follows;


“Bill, the blast is hard to see because a text box is right over the explosion on my screen. In my opinion, from what I can see, the blast does not look nuclear. It resembles more an explosion of a large fuel/oil storage tank, as would be found at a port. Also, there is no info in English on how far the filmers were from the blast, which would help in scale.”


Of the many comments received, the most common was “fuel ordinance”. I try always to be accurate and get to the truth which is why we went to the source of a scientist. I now believe the explosion was in fact some sort of fuel or chemical, most common thought amongst comments was LNG (liquid natural gas). Whether the explosion was or was not an accident may never be known. Accidents do happen, the “timing” of this accident does add the flavor of curiosity.


Standing watch,


(訳者: 核ではなかったようです。アメリカは中国、ロシアと経済戦争をしてきています。そして、中国、ロシアにナンバー1の地位を譲らないように、軍事力で世界を制圧しようとしています。なので、今回の爆発は私も怪しいと思いました。そして今でも怪しいと思ってます。”核ではない=誰かが仕組んだことではない、ただのアクシデント”ではないと思いますから。やっぱり、脅しにピッタリのあのタイミングがどうしても気になります。一体何が爆発を引き起こしたのか?真実を知りたいです。)

にほんブログ村 経済ブログへ


UFO:  信じる
自由: 賛成
平和: 賛成
自然エネルギー: 賛成
本:  わら一本の革命