以下の事柄に当てはまれば、あなたは「システムの外にいる」ということになります by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月29日

Dear CIGAs,

We will expand on this over time, but you are “out of the system” if:

1. Your equities are held in certificate form.
2. You have no Federal retirement funds.
3. You have no CDs and investments in bonds.
4. You have modest money deposited among selected BRICs countries.
5. You store your own precious metals.
6. You have no mortgage obligations.
7. You keep cash on hand for 6 months expenses.
8. You have no consumer debt at all.
9. You have a small hobby farm for protein and veggies outside of where you are living with no mortgage debt, set up green.
10. You have a gas, diesel or electric car with high fuel mileage for the farm.
11. You have a generator with large fuel capacity for the farm.
12. You do not live in a major metropolitan area.

















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金融のナチスがやってきます by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月29日

You have alerted us to the scare campaign of depositors being treated as lenders. Here is one report illustrative of this as well as a December 2012 joint paper of the FDIC and the Bank of England planning for systemic collapse.

Dear Ron,
You have only one solution. That is get out of the system to the maximum degree you can.
The Monetary Nazis are coming. If you sit around discussing confiscation, doing nothing, you and those that depend on you will become serfs of Wall Street.









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NYダウ、最高値を再び更新 2013年3月29日

NYダウ、最高値を再び更新 欧州不安やわらぐ

朝日新聞デジタル 3月29日(金)5時36分配信


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恐れなくてはならない、非常に恐れなくてはならない by ビル・グロス 2013年1月31日


主に債券投資で巨万の富を築き上げた彼は債券王(Bond King)として世界に広く知られています。

Bill Gross: Be very afraid of the markets
By Maureen Farrell January 31, 2013: 11:38 AM ET

ビル・グロス: 市場を非常に恐れなくてはならない
by モーリーン・ファレル 2013年1月31日

Bond guru and Pimco (PTTRX) managing director Bill Gross isn't buying into the bull market. In fact, he's warning investors to be afraid, be very afraid, of how inflation and the flood of cheap money will affect all investments.


Investors should be prepared to accept "lower returns on bonds, stocks, real estate and derivative strategies," Gross wrote in his monthly letter entitled "Credit Supernova!"
Championing something of a bunker mentality, Gross told investors to buy Treasuries with shorter durations and buy gold or other investments that "you can sink your teeth into."
Go outside of the U.S., he says. Buy currencies from countries "with less hyberbolic credit systems" including Australia, Brazil, Mexico or Canada. The U.S. won't fit that bill.
He doesn't suggest totally eschewing stocks, but says investors should look to global stocks with stable cash flows.

グロス氏が発行している月間通信の「信用 超新星」という記事の中で、投資家は「債券と株と不動産からより低いリターンしか得られなくなる」ことを覚悟しなくてはならないと彼は書きました。(超新星:新星(nova)より大規模な激変星。伴星から移ったガスの重量に耐え切れずに大爆発を起こすI型がある。)

Gross has been warning investors about the potential downsides of the Federal Reserve's bond buying strategy for months, but the tone of this month's letter was decidedly more fearful.
While the letter's title obliquely references the band Oasis, Gross opted to lead his monthly missive with an ominous T.S. Eliot quote rather than his usual song lyric: "This is the way the world ends... Not with a bang but a whimper."Related: Bill Gross: Avoid long-term bonds

記事のタイトルがバンドのオアシスから引用されていますが、グロス氏は自身の通信の中で、いつも使っている歌の歌詞、「これが世界の終わり方、、、爆発じゃなくて、メソメソ泣きながら」 の代わりに、T.S. Eliotの不吉な引用文を使うことを選びました。

The world Gross refers to is the monetary system. "Today's near zero bound interest rates cripple savers and business models previously constructed on the basis of positive real yields," Gross writes.

ここで彼が言う「世界」は「通貨システム」を意味しています。「現在のほぼゼロ金利政策は、貯蓄している人たちと、プラスの本物の生産力の元に今まで築き上げられたビジネスモデルを、ダメにしてしまう。」とグロス氏は書いています。(Bill Gross: Avoid long-term bonds参照すること)

Gross admits that "the end of the global monetary system is not nigh," but says we're approaching a time where "investable assets pose too much risk for too little return."
What else should an investor do to prepare for what Gross sees as something of a financial Armageddon? He says one of his investment committee members wants to buy land in New Zealand and set sail. Land has an inherent value, suggests Gross, unlike other so-called investable assets.


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キプロスの銀行が休業中だった間ずっと、大手銀行の一つが大口顧客に対してだけ営業を続けていたのを知っていますか? by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月26日

March 26, 2013, at 6:02 pm

Dear CIGAs,

Remember yesterday’s topic of discussion in the community that Russia was going to freeze German money? That was another example of the totally inaccurate reporting in the gold community.

So far there has not been one correct rendition of what took place in Cyprus. Do you know that one major bank was open for the entire period of Cyprus Bank closures for major clients?

Do you really believe in the months leading up to this that the Russian depositors just sat there calmly waiting for largess from the IMF and did not withdraw the balance of their accounts as the account stood?

It gets harder every day to do JSMineset when even the gold community is full of gun slingers that I believe will transmit themselves to whatever is hot in town for revenue. Many articles are even published under made up names.









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日銀、国債買入一本化と無期限緩和の前倒しを検討へ 2013年3月27日

2013年3月27日 14:12更新


[東京 27日 ロイター] 日銀は次回の金融政策決定会合で、黒田東彦総裁ら新執行部体制の下で質・量両面から大胆な金融緩和を進めるため、金融政策運営の枠組みや緩和の規模などを議論する。



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歴史的な出来事が起きている by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月25日

EK: では、これら全ては、これから先にどうなっていくということなんですか?

ジム: キプロスがユーロに残ってロシアの植民地にならなかったことについてですが、これは量的緩和が現在行われていて、これから先も行われ、それがこれからも世の中を先導していくということです。あと、預金者のお金は100億ユーロの合意に転送されません。あと、銀行口座に1千万ドル以上のお金を持っている人たちは、新しいショートパンツを買わなくてはならないでしょう。(訳者のコメント:銀行にお金を入れておくと没収される、預金を引き出して通貨のまま家に置いておいても量的緩和で通貨の価値が下がる、なので、物を買わなくてはならなくなる、という意味だと思います。)

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損害額を預金から没収するのは、通貨の価値を落として損害を没収するのと、何も変わらない。 by ピーター・シフ

MARCH 22, 2013

Taking Actual Losses On Deposits Is No Different Than Taking Losses Through Devaluation And Inflation

"Many are lamenting that Cyprus’ membership in the EU prevents it from devaluing its own currency to get out of the jam. How would such a course be morally superior? Taking actual losses on deposits is no different than taking losses through devaluation and inflation. Both result in the loss of purchasing power. Asking for a depositor haircut at least deals with the problem honestly and immediately. Although it’s not quite as honest, devaluation can also be effective." - in Market Playground



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ラガルドの大失敗がバーナンキを中央銀行から追い出す by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月21日

EK: たった1日半前のインタビューであなたは、「プーチンはIMFを負かしたんです。IMFはワシントンDCにあります、というより、IMFはワシントン(アメリカ政府)そのものなんです。なのでこれを冷戦の観点から見れば、ワシントン対モスクワとなるんですが、今回の試合はモスクワが勝ったということです。つまり、ラガルドはプーチンに挑戦しましたが、逆に彼女とIMFがプーチンに追い込まれたということです。」と言いましたよね。驚くべきことに、このインタビューの数時間後にラガルドの自宅が警察に家宅捜索され、彼女は苦労していますよ。



EK: このIMFの惨事が起き、明らかにラガルドは責任を問われている。これから先に西洋世界で混乱が起きる可能性があるとあなたは言いました、そして彼らはここで次のステップを間違うわけにはいかないと言ってましたが、バーナンキに起きていることは一体何なんですか?

ジム: 彼らがしたギャンブルの内容は、破綻した銀行の資金を中央銀行が負担するのではなく、預金者に負担させるように手法を変化させる、というものでした。量的緩和で銀行を救済するのではなく、預金者のお金で救済する





EK: じゃあ、キプロスでIMFが起した惨事のダメージがあまりに大きいので、バーナンキは「もう辞める」と言ったということですか?


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IMFのラガルド専務理事宅に家宅捜索 仏当局 2013年3月21日

IMFのラガルド専務理事宅に家宅捜索 仏当局

2013/3/21 0:53




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キプロスでプーチンがIMFを踏み潰した後、次の危険 by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月20日









EK: IMFはここから立ち直れると思いますか?


EK: 今回の出来事はロシアとプーチンにとってどれだけの勝利だったのでしょう?

ジム: とっても大きな勝利ですよ。殆どの人たちは理解していないと思いますが、世界のリーダー達はよく理解しています、或いはこれから理解するでしょう。プーチンはIMFを負かしたんです。IMFはワシントンDCにあります、というより、IMFはワシントン(アメリカ政府)そのものなんです。なのでこれを冷戦の観点から見れば、ワシントン対モスクワとなるんですが、今回の試合はモスクワが勝ったということです。


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ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月19日

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Cyprus voted down the bill to impose the confiscation of depositor’s money. Now the IMF must act as their bluff has been called by the Russians.

The IMF must lose face here by backing down or they will start a Western world run on the banks.





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FRB、量的緩和策を継続 実質ゼロ金利も

朝日新聞デジタル 3月21日(木)3時32分配信



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キプロス、預金課税案を否決 EUの支援計画、宙に浮く

朝日新聞デジタル 3月20日(水)3時59分配信





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キプロスの惨事は報道されているよりずっと大きなものです。 by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月19日


キプロスの出来事が最初に起きた時、大手メディアは話の要点を完全に見落としていました。なので私はすぐにKing World Newsのインタビューを受けたんです。IMFがしたことはロシアのエリート達、別の言い方をすれば、ロシアの元KGB諜報員たち、のお金を盗んだということだと説明したんです。(訳者のコメント:要するにジム・シンクレアは、キプロスの政治家たちの命が危険にさらされているということを本人たちに伝えたかったんだと思います。)




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キプロスの大惨事の後から地獄が広がります by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月18日



ジム: これに関係している人たちはみんな怖がるべきです。記事は目覚ましの合図として役に立ったと思います。キプロスに関しては大きな計算ミスがあったんです。状況は素早く大惨事になっていっています。彼らはキプロスにお金を置いているロシアの会社の後ろにいる存在を本質的に見抜けていなかったんです。そしてロシアの元KGBのお金を没収するということがどんな事態に繋がるのか。




EK: この大失敗の余波と、チェスの駒の動きはどうなると思いますか?

ジム: ロシア人のお金を取り上げるのはとてもバカなことです。自分が相手にしている人たちの文化を理解しなくてはいけません。キプロスの政府のリーダー達は、プーチン自身を含む元ロシアKGB諜報員たちの報復から身を守るのに十分な能力はありません。







EK: 週末にあなたが予想した通り、ゴールドが1600ドルレベルに近づきましたね。中央銀行やその他の、実物のゴールドを買ってる人たちが競り値を上げて、空売りに勝ってるみたいですね。

ジム: ヘッジファンドがゴールドを空売りしている主張が今はもう崩れてしまいましたからね。ゴールド市場からキャッシュ市場へ移行する流れが生まれたんです。紙市場(ゴールドの実物を取引しない市場のこと。ETFやネット積み立てなど)がキャッシュ市場に変化していきます。今までゴールドの価格を決めるのは紙市場でしたが、これからは、何で取引するかという全く新しい時代になりました。



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歴史にとって、そしてゴールドにとって、一番重要な出来事の内の一つ by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月16日






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「預金者負担」に揺れるキプロス支援 ATMに行列

「預金者負担」に揺れるキプロス支援 ATMに行列

2013/3/18 10:44 (2013/3/18 11:50更新)




日銀、量的緩和復活へ 2013年3月16日


読売新聞 3月16日(土)3時0分配信






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私達はワイマール共和国と同じ道を歩んでる by ピーター・シフ 2010年10月13日


Schiff: Buy Gold, Commodity Stocks And China

シフ: ゴールド、商品、中国を買え

October 13, 2010

Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, hardly needs an introduction. He’s king of the dollar bears and a fierce critic of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy.


All the recent talk about the Fed buying more Treasury as part of its so-called quantitative easing program aimed at keeping borrowing costs low has him more convinced than ever that the U.S. is on a clear path to inflation, possibly hyperinflation.


He made clear to IndexUniverse.com Managing Editor Olivier Ludwig that the more the Fed loosens monetary policy, the less it will work and the more the dollar will lose value. It all sounds dire and disturbing. But Schiff has a clear investment plan to protect investment portfolios: gold and lots of precious metals stocks, supplemented by agricultural and energy stocks and exposure to China.


Ludwig: Before this rally in gold is over, would you venture to guess how high it can go?

L: ゴールドの現在の価格上昇が終わる前に、どこまで価格が上がるか思い切って言ってみてもらえますか?

Schiff: I like to quote it in terms of the Dow, because you just don’t know how much inflation there’s going to be. So my target is for a relationship that’s close to 1-to-1 between gold and the Dow. I’ve had that target since the Dow was worth more than 40 ounces of gold. Right now it’s worth 8 or 8-1/2 ounces, so I think it’ll get down to 1-to-1. But you don’t know where that’s going to be. It could be Dow 5,000-gold $5,000, it could be Dow 10,000-gold $10,000; it could be Dow 20,000-gold $20,000; it could be Dow 2,000-gold $2,000. I don’t know where it’s going to be, but I think it’s going to happen.


Ludwig: Why 1-to-1?

L: なぜ1対1なんですか?

Schiff: That was the low of the bear market of the 1930 and that was the low of the bear market of the 1970s. The Dow was worth one ounce of gold in 1932 and the Dow was worth one ounce of gold in 1980. So it seems that historically, one ounce of gold is about where the Dow goes when it’s really cheap. But if we have hyperinflation I don’t know how much value the dollar could lose. It could lose half its value, it could lose 90 percent of its value, it could lose 99 percent of its value.


Ludwig: So how much gold should somebody own without being out of their mind at this point?

L: じゃぁ、頭がおかしくならない程度に持つとしたら、現時点でどれだけのゴールドを人は持つべきだと思いますか?

Schiff: Well I think you’d be out of your mind not to own gold. If someone told me the only thing they had was gold, I wouldn’t think they were crazy. I don’t only have gold. About 50 percent of my portfolio is in gold and silver mining stocks. That’s pretty aggressive. About 5 to 10 percent of my liquid net worth is in physical metals. So I’m a lot heavier in the actual mining companies than I am in gold because I think that they are very undervalued. And then I have a lot of agricultural stocks and energy stocks and I have a lot of Chinese stocks. I don’t want to give up China. I think China is going to outperform gold over the long term.

シフ: というより、ゴールドを持たないことのほうが頭がおかしいですよ。もし誰かが、「私はゴールドしか持っていない。」と言ったら、私はその人をキチガイだとは思いませんよ。私はゴールド以外にも持ってますよ。私のポートフォリオの大体50%はゴールドとシルバーの採掘関連の株式です。これは大分強気だと思いますが。私の流動資産の5-10%は実物の貴金属です。(訳者のコメント:PC上の貴金属のネット積み立てやETFなどの取引ではなく、実物の貴金属を保有している)なので私はゴールドそのものよりずっと沢山、採掘会社のほうに投資しています。なぜなら採掘会社はとても過小評価されているからです。あと沢山の農業関連、エネルギー関連の株、そして沢山の中国の株も持ってます。中国を諦めようとは思いません。長い目で見れば、私は中国はゴールド以上に良いパフォーマンスをすると思っています。

I think for most Americans, gold is going to do better than stocks, and it’s certainly going to do better than bonds. And right now the agricultural commodities are doing really well. I mean look what’s happening to corn in that last couple of days – soybeans, sugar, look what cotton’s been doing.


Ludwig: Regarding China, where do you see all the currency jostling heading to?

L: 中国に関してですが、通貨の全てが押し合いへし合いしてますが、これがどのようになっていくと思いますか?

Schiff: Well it’s heading to stronger gold and commodity prices, which is inflation. When countries foolishly decide to debase their currencies, the winner is gold and the winners are the countries that aren’t involved in this war, because the more you debase your currency, the more succeed in impoverishing your own citizens. The goal of any society should be toward a stronger currency because that means you have greater purchasing power.

シフ: そうですね、ゴールドと商品の値上がりに繋がっていくと思います。ようするにインフレです。国がバカなことに通貨の価値を下げると決めた時の勝者はゴールドです。あとその競争に参加しない国々です。なぜなら、政府が通貨の価値を下げることに成功すればするほど、その国の国民はどんどん貧困化します。

Remember, it’s not just Chinese imports that g
et more expensive when the Chinese renminbi rises, but Chinese citizens will buy more of our crops: more corn, more wheat, more soybeans, more cotton, which means the price is going to go up and for Americans too. So, the worst thing that could happen to a U.S. citizen is a stronger Chinese renminbi.


Ludwig: Looking at the here and now, looking at the earnings season that’s getting under way, do you see any good buying opportunities in U.S. stocks?

L: もうすぐ決算発表シーズン迎えますが、現時点でアメリカを見て、買うのに良いアメリカの株はありますか?

Schiff: No. I’m not buying U.S. stocks. I think U.S. stocks will go up, but I think they will go up more slowly than foreign stocks, and I don’t think yields are there. I don’t think they’ll do as good as gold or silver or other commodities. Now there are some U.S. stocks you could buy, like a gold stock, like Newmont Mining, and there are some other ones you could buy, like in energy. But in general, I think you’re better off investing outside the United States.

シフ: いいえ。私はアメリカの株は買いません。私はアメリカの株は上がると思いますが、外国の株ほど早く上がらないと思います。配当もないと思います。アメリカの株式は、ゴールド、シルバー、他の商品ほど上がらないと思います。もちろんゴールド関連の株やエネルギー関連の株など、買えるものはあります。でも全体的にはアメリカ国外で投資したほうがいいと思います。

Ludwig: In your latest “Hail Mary” newsletter, you seemed quite certain that the next round of quantitative easing was going to occur and that it was going to be a train wreck.

L: あなたのニュースレター“Hail Mary”の最近の記事では、また次の量的緩和がやってきて、それが大惨事になると確信していると書いてありましたが?

Schiff: Well it adds to the supply of dollars, so it weakens the dollar. And that causes prices to rise immediately for gold, for agricultural products and for energy. And when the Fed buys Treasuries, it enables the Fed to go deeper into debt. By the Fed going out and buying bonds, it gives the government the ability to keep spending money. But if the Fed were not buying bonds and doing the right thing and raising interest rates, then we would have a real cut in government spending.

ソフ: 量的緩和はドルの供給を増やしてドルを弱くしますからね。そうなるとゴールドと農作物とエネルギーの価格は即時に上がります。あと中央銀行(FRB)が国債を買えば、中央銀行はより多くの負債を抱えます。中央銀行が国債を買うことで政府がお金を使い続けることが出来るんですよ。でも中央銀行が国債を買わないで、正しいことをして金利を上げれば、政府の支出が大きく削減されます。

But none of our politicians have to make those choices because the Fed enables them to continue deficit spending. So they’re basically giving Congress the shovel they need to dig us into a deeper hole. But we don’t want to make the hole any deeper; it’s already very, very deep.


And the problem is that as they go down this path, it is never going to create real economic growth. You’re not going to create economic growth by printing money to buy government bonds. All you’re going to succeed in is in growing the government, shrinking the economy, and creating inflation. And you’re going to make the economy less productive, less efficient, which means it’s going to keep getting worse. More people are going to lose jobs.


Ludwig: So what would the best-case scenario be, as you see it and as painful as it might be?

L: じゃぁ、一番良いシナリオはどういうものですか?あなたの意見ではどんなもので、それはどれくらいの痛みを伴うものになるんでしょうか?

Schiff: The Congress and the President would level with the American public and let them know that the Federal Reserve really screwed up in the last decade, and that we’re in a lot of trouble as a country: We haven’t saved enough, we haven’t produced enough; we’ve all consumed too much; the government got too big; the state governments got too big, the federal government got too big; everybody bought things they couldn’t afford, and this is going to have to change.

シフ: 過去10年間に中央銀行が大失敗し、国家レベルでとても大きな問題を抱えてしまったと、連邦議会と大統領はアメリカ国民に正直に打ち明けるべきです。「私たち(国民)は十分な貯蓄をしてこなかった、私たちは十分生産してこなかった、私たちは消費しすぎてきた、政府は大きくなりすぎた、州政府も大きくなりすぎた、連邦政府も大きくなりすぎた、みんな自分の財力以上に物を買ってきた、なので、これらは全て変わらなければならない。」

And the Fed would need to raise interest rates, and we’d need to have the government get out of the housing market, close down Fannie and Freddie, just let housing prices fall. Let the market determine who buys houses and what the prices are, and not Washington.


And some banks are going to fail. And the government’s going to have to let them fail and not bail people out. You cannot bail out bankrupt companies. Let the market cleanse them. Respect the rule of law. Don’t screw the creditors. You can’t have politicians hand over companies to labor unions or whatever they’re doing.


Ludwig: But you’re also saying the government is not going to do the right thing, the way you see it, right?

L: でもあなたは、政府は正しいことをしないだろうと言ってますよね?

Schiff: Yes, right now there’s no chance they’ll do the right thing. As long as the Fed is easing, they will never do the right thing.

シフ: そうです。政府が正しいことをする可能性は現在ゼロです。中央銀行が量的緩和を続ける限り、彼らは正しいことを絶対にしない。

Ludwig: Well, in the absence of doing the right thing, walk me through how the train wreck unfolds?

L: じゃぁ、正しいことが行われない世の中で、どのような大惨事が私達を待ち受けてるのか説明してもらえますか?

Schiff: They’re going to keep quantitative easing, so eventually what’s going to happen is the dollar is going to keep falling, commodity prices are going to keep rising, and eventually the CPI is going to be rising despite the government’s best efforts to hide how much inflation is there. First they’ll say it’s OK if it’s just the core – it’s OK if just food and energy prices are rising 10 or 15 or 20 percent a year. But at some point the inflation rate will be obviously high, the Fed will not be tightening to try to fight the inflation because there will still be 9, 10 11 percent unemployment, so they’ll keep on with QE2, QE3, QE4 and so on, and they’ll buy more and more bonds.

シフ: 彼らは量的緩和を続けます。なのでそのうちドルの価値が下がり続け、商品価格が上がり続けます。そしてどれだけのインフレになっているのか隠そうとする政府の必死の努力も虚しく、消費者物価指数が上がりだします。最初は彼らはコアだけだから大丈夫ですよ、と言います。次に、食べ物とエネルギー価格だけ年間10%、15%、20%上がるくらい大丈夫ですよ、と言う。しかしどこかの時点でインフレ率が明らかに高くなりますが、中央銀行は金利を上げてインフレを抑制することは出来ないといいます、なぜならまだ失業率が9,10,11%もありますから、と言って、QE2(量的緩和2)、QE3、QE4、そしてずっと続け、国債をもっともっと買い続けます。

And then eventually, the bottom will drop out and the dollar will start to fall faster and interest rates will start to rise sharply on all the bonds that the Fed is not buying. So Treasury yields could be held in check by the Fed, but municipal bond yields will be soaring, corporate bond yields will be soaring. Then the Fed will have wonder whether it should buy those bonds too. And if they do that then we just get a complete collapse of the currency. It would all just implode.


Ludwig: Is that a real possibility in your mind?

L: 本当にそんなことが起きる可能性があると思ってるんですか?

Schiff: Oh, yeah. We are on a path to Weimar Republic Germany. That’s where we are. Does that mean we are going to end up like the Weimar Republic? No, because we still have time to do the right thing. But that window is shutting.

シフ: 当然です。私達はワイマール共和国(訳者のコメント:1920年代にハイパーインフレで社会が完全に崩壊したドイツ)と同じ道を歩んでる途中なんですよ。まさに私たちはそこにいるのです。しかしだからといって、私達がワイマール共和国と全く同じように終わりを迎えるか、といいうと答えはノーです。なぜなら、まだ正しい方向へ転換する時間がまだ私達には残されていますから。しかしその扉はどんどん閉まっていっています。

Ludwig: How much time is there?

L: どれだけの時間が残されていると思いますか?

Schiff: I don’t know. I’m not a clairvoyant genius. I don’t think it’s generations. I think it’s years, and it’s not a lot of years. But I do know that the longer we wait to do the right thing, the more it’s going to hurt. So if we did the right thing today, it would be painful. If we did the right thing tomorrow, it’d be that much more painful. The longer we wait the deeper into debt we go.



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ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月15日

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Bill Gross yesterday:

"They say that time is money. What they don’t say is that money may be running out of time."






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貯蓄して投資することだけが実体経済を発展させる by ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月14日

"An economy doesn’t prosper in real terms through borrowing and money printing,
only through saving and investing. "



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ジム・シンクレア 2013年3月14日

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

The following is Kyle Bass’response in March 2013 when asked which one investment he would make for the next ten years.

“I would buy Gold in JPY and go to sleep, sell JPY, buy Gold, go to sleep again and wake up ten years later fine. Don’t put all your money in it, but that is the single best investment you can make today.”






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G20の経済的自殺 by ダグ・ケイシー 2012年3月1日


70年代にオーストリア経済学に基づいて書かれた彼の本、Crisis Investing(危機投資)はニューヨークタイムスのベストセラーになりました。
彼は経済分析を行うCasey Researchという会社の創設者兼社長であり、ゴールドの採掘会社や他に数々の会社を持っています。


Doug Casey on G20 Economic Suicide


L: So Doug, the G20 declared that there will be no currency war. Other than a belly laugh, any reactions?


Doug: First, we should define what a currency war is. I'd say it's a competition between governments to devalue their respective currencies, accomplished by creating lots more new dollars, euros, yen, or what have you. The idea is to increase exports and decrease imports, with the supposed bonus of stimulating the economy. It's an idiotic idea, proof that the people struggling for control of the world's economy are both knaves and fools. The worst part is that people apparently think somebody actually can and should try to control the economy. The world is imitating Argentina.


I believe that Argentina is still a member of the G20, although hanging on by its fingernails. It would be interesting to see the transcript of the meeting and see what the Argentine representative said, because they're inflating the currency down here at a rate of about 30% per year, even while they're trying to maintain an artificial exchange rate. My suspicion is that the general level of economic knowledge, competence, and ethics among the participants of that conference is not much above that of Argentina.


L: That may be, but it strikes me as being... just so ridiculous. I mean, the US is printing money by the helicopter load and sending much of it abroad, which prompts other countries to try to do the same. Bernanke says it isn't so, but everyone can see it is. How can they say there's no currency war? Is this an attempt at a Big Lie?


Doug: The new Japanese prime minister has come out and said that the Bank of Japan needs to redouble its efforts to create new yen. The Chinese are creating yuan in hyperdrive. The Europeans are doing the same with the euro. In the US, they're printing new dollars at a rate of about 100 billion per month. And that's just among the four big players. It's as though they believe their own lies and think that the driving force of an economy really is public opinion. Believing that, they have no problem admonishing people to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain; everything will be fine as long as people believe it will be.


This reminds me of the story of the guy who jumps off a 100-story building and yells as he passes the 50th floor, "So far, so good!"


L: Does anyone even know if it's possible for the G20 economies to grow at a rate that would make their deficit/debt levels manageable?


Doug: I understand that it would take growth on the order of what made China famous in the previous decade, but if anything their growth rates are going down. I think they are heading toward collapse. That's in part because of the ongoing currency debasement, but also in part because the inevitable response of these governments to the harmful effects of that debasement is to impose more rules, regulations, and controls.


Consider again the example of Argentina. The government here recently made it illegal for newspapers to publish advertisements that include prices for things like food. Since Argentina now has price controls for food, they say it's unnecessary and will only excite the public. This is the kind of thinking that permeates the economic establishment today. Everywhere.


I should pause and emphasize, however, that as difficult as Argentina is for doing business, it's a fantastic place to live. I doubt that will be true of the US in a few years.


L: Sounds pretty crazy, and this is a place that already prosecutes journalists for publishing inflation statistics that contradict those of the government. It does seem par for the course worldwide, however, for governments to intervene in the marketplace, cause disruptions, and then use those disruptions as mandates for establishing new regulations and laws.


But Doug, let me push back a little here. You've been saying for some time now that we are on the verge of exiting the eye of the storm. I look at the data, I look at the logic, and I can't disagree with you, but this has lasted several years now… Why should anyone think it's going to happen now?


Doug: Fair question. I could point out that the recent negative GDP numbers from Germany – and all of Europe – are extremely bearish: the endgame for the EU can't be too far off. A number of large US retailers are closing scores, even hundreds, of stores. The earnings of fast-food outlets are falling as people find they can't afford to eat out. But still, even if the natives are restless, they're still not out in the streets with their torches and pitchforks. Perhaps this summer…


But really, this is an almost philosophic question. The economy consists of the values and actions of seven billion people, all doing different things for a million different reasons. It's hard enough to make any prediction about such a complex system; it's extremely difficult to get both the prediction and the timing of the events right. That said, I admit to sometimes conflating the imminent with the inevitable.


L: It's like a sort of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle for economics.


Doug: That's a good analogy. People may be growing tired of hearing me predict the same gloomy near-term economic outcome, but that doesn't make me wrong. Here at Casey Research, we have an economic model of the way the world works. It's not our model exclusively (people who would like to know more should do a search for "Austrian economics"). This model has been shown to be correct and to have excellent predictive power time and time again over the last century. It's been shown to be totally correct in the recent past as well. But knowing you're right doesn't necessarily give you the power to know when you will be proven right. It's just not possible to be absolutely certain when something inevitable like this has in fact become imminent. We're talking about predictions that are far more complicated than predicting at 11 o'clock that the hands on the clock will point at the number 12 in an hour.


Despite the difficulty, it's very important to have a model that has predictive power; seeing where things are going is extremely valuable, even if you can't be sure exactly when things will happen.


L: It's certainly got to be better than a model predicated on assumptions that are defined by the whims of politicians.


Doug: Quite right. I'm sorry if some people are perturbed by our inability to make things happen on a certain time schedule, but I think they should look at our track record and give us some credit for being right about how things are happening. We predicted the debt crisis, the currency crisis, the housing crisis, and the direction of precious metals – accurately and years before others. I think we will soon be shown to be absolutely correct about the direction of the bond market, which is now peaking. It may sound brash, but I feel quite certain that will be shown to be right on all the major trends we are now predicting.


L: Back to the G20: as ridiculous as their denial of the currency war currently under way is, the conclusion they drew is no laughing matter. Just as you said, despite their denials, they claim the situation requires new currency controls. The noose tightens.

L: G20の話題に戻る:現在起きている通貨戦争を否定するほどのバカぶりだけど、その結果彼らが導き出した結論は笑えないよね。通貨戦争の存在を否定したにも関わらず、現在の情況は新しい通貨管理を必要とするだってさ。要するにがんじがらめだよ。

Doug: Yes. Despite what they say, these people clearly feel an urgent need to gain control of the situation. They've caused immense chaos, and at some level they probably know it. Of course, they would never dream of accepting responsibility and rolling back any of their economically suicidal policies. Their only response – always and ever – has to be new rules and regulations. They are clamping the lid on the pressure cooker even tighter. These people are truly stupid, in the clinical sense of that word. No matter how badly their meddling backfires, their answer is always more meddling. I'm sorry I can't tell you the day and the hour this thing will blow, but I'm absolutely certain it will.


L: How can they be so blind?

L: なんで彼らはそんなに目が見えてないのかな?

Doug: Bastiat explained it 200 years ago. They see only the immediate and direct consequences of their actions and pay no attention to – or deny – the delayed and indirect consequences of their actions. If the United States, say, devalues its currency by 20%, an immediate effect inside the United States is that everything is 20% cheaper for foreigners. Labor and products are cheaper for foreigners, so exports may increase and make it seem like the economy is getting a great boost.


But this is typical fallacious economic thinking. There are extremely important delayed and indirect effects that are ignored in such a case. Among them is that people don't want to save a weak currency. If people don't save, you can't build capital, and without capital it's impossible to have investment, and progress is diminished. Another ignored consequence is that domestic businesses face increased import costs. Politicians may shrug that off, saying people can buy American cars instead of German or Japanese cars, but many businesses rely on equipment, technologies, and raw materials from abroad. Moreover, all businesses, families, and individuals consume energy, much of which is imported from abroad. Further, if the currency is devalued 20%, it means Americans can buy that much less of foreign businesses, and foreigners can buy that much more of US businesses. Frankly, I couldn't care less what the nationality of buyers and sellers might be. But Americans will be hurt by a weak US dollar as surely as Zimbabweans were hurt by a weak Zim dollar.


People forget that in 1971, when Nixon devalued the dollar, the Swiss franc was $0.23, and the German mark was $0.25; today they're $1.08 and $1.31, respectively. The Japanese yen was 300 to the dollar; today it's about 90. The success of these countries was partly because of strong currencies. A strong currency helped them become rich and prosperous. Of course, most governments are now deeply in debt, and that's a powerful incentive to destroy their currencies.


L: The very currency war the G20 is denying.

L: G20が存在を否定した通貨戦争そのもののことを言ってるんだね。

Doug: Yes, and the result is that you don't just get one currency devaluing, but all currencies devaluing against real assets, commodities, goods, and services. I do believe that within the foreseeable future all these paper currencies are going to be devalued to zero – in other words, they will reach their actual intrinsic values.


This is extremely serious, because the productive people of the world – the ones who actually consume less than they produce and save the difference, which is what all economic growth and progress depends upon – will be wiped out. When their savings vanish, it's going to create a social and political earthquake right off the Richter scale.


L: Okay, but I'm not going to let you off the hook here. Tune in to your guru sense please, and tell us: Do you still see 2013 as the year when the global economic house of cards starts visibly falling apart?

L: 理解したよ。ちょっとここで別のことを聞きたいんだけど、トランプカードで作られたグローバル経済の家が2013年に目に見えて倒れてゆくだろうって言ってたけど、今でもそう思ってる?

Doug: Well, never say never. Almost anything is possible. I don't think it will happen, but I can't say it's impossible that government efforts around the world to paper over the crisis won't succeed for a while longer. But even if that were to happen, it would only make the ultimate crisis that much worse.


Here's what it boils down to: if you see a tidal wave coming at you and you're not exactly sure when it will hit, it doesn't actually matter. You've got to get out of its way. You've got to get to high ground. Period. This is the bottom line for me. Stating this as loudly and clearly as possible is my role in today's economic discourse.


L: When it comes to a house of cards like this, it's better to be a year early than a day late.

L: トランプカードで出来た家のように不安定な今の状況では、1日遅いより1年早いほうがいいってことだ。

Doug: It's like Rick says in Casablanca: "If that plane leaves the ground and you're not with him, you'll regret it. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon and for the rest of your life."


I hate to sound like a broken record, but the investment implications remain very clear: sell bonds; general equities are overpriced; real estate is dangerous. Gold and silver aren't cheap, but they're the only safe havens available right now. Well, I could add productive farmland to that short list, but it takes a lot of management – owning precious metals is much simpler.


L: Okay Doug, I appreciate your candid responses. We'll talk again soon.

L: オーケー、ダグ、率直な意見をありがとう。また近いうちに話そう。

Doug: My pleasure, as always.


March 1, 2013


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ron paul1






"He's The ONLY One In American Politics Who Has A Clue About What's Really Going On"

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私たちの敵、中央銀行 by ロン・ポール 2011年3月18日

Our Enemy, the Fed

by Ron Paul

Before the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services Monetary Policy and Rising Prices, March 17, 2011




There is perhaps no topic as important to the average American today as rising prices. Whether we consider food, gasoline, or clothing, the cost of living is increasing significantly. At a time of high unemployment, rising prices trap American families between a rock and a hard place. While rising prices colloquially are referred to as "inflation," true inflation is defined as an increase in the money supply, and all other things being equal, an increase in the money supply leads to a rise in prices. Inflation is and always has been throughout history a monetary phenomenon, and its destructive effects have ruined societies from the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany to modern-day Zimbabwe.


Blame for the most recent round of price increases has been laid at the feet of the Federal Reserve's program of quantitative easing, and rightly so in my opinion. This program, known as QE2, sought to purchase a total of $900 billion in US Treasury debt over a period of 8 months. Roughly $110 billion of newly created money is flooding into markets each month, markets which still have not fully recovered from the financial crisis of the last few years. Banks still hold billions of dollars in underperforming mortgage-backed securities on their books, securities which would render numerous major banks insolvent if they were "marked to market." These nervous banks are hesitant to loan out further money, instead holding well over a trillion dollars on reserve with the Fed. Is it any wonder, then, that the Fed's new hot money is flowing into commodity markets?


The price of cotton is up more than 170% over the past year, oil is up over 40%, and many categories of food staples are seeing double-digit price growth. This means that food, clothing, and gasoline will become increasingly expensive over the coming year. American families, many of whom already live paycheck to paycheck, increasingly will be forced by these rising prices into unwilling tradeoffs. Rising prices lead to consumers purchasing ground beef rather than steak, drinking water rather than milk, and choosing canned vegetables over fresh. Clothes are worn until they are threadbare, in order to conserve money that keeps food on the table and pays the heating bill. While some might argue that this new frugality is a good thing, frugality is virtuous only when it results from free choice, not when it is forced upon the citizenry by the Fed's ruinous monetary policy.


While the Fed takes credit for the increase in the stock markets, it claims no responsibility for the increases in food and commodity prices. Even most economists fail to understand that inflation is at root a monetary phenomenon. As the supply of money increases, more money chases the same amount of goods, and prices rise. There may be other factors that contribute to price rises, such as famine, flooding, or global unrest, but these effects on prices are always short-term, not long-term. Consistently citing rising demand, bad weather, or energy supply uncertainty while never acknowledging the effects of monetary policy is a cop-out. Governments throughout history have sought to blame price increases on bad weather, speculators, and a whole host of other factors, rather than acknowledging the effects of their inflationary monetary policies. Indeed, tyrants of many stripes have debased their nations' currencies while denying responsibility for the suffering that results.


The unelected policymakers at the Fed are also the last to feel the effects of inflation, in fact, they benefit from it, as does the government as a whole. Inflation results in a rise in prices, but those who receive this new money first, such as government employees, contractors, and bankers are able to use it before prices begin to increase, while those further down the totem pole suffer price increases before they see any of this new money. By reducing the purchasing power of the dollar, the Fed's monetary policy also harms savers, encouraging reckless indebtedness and a more present-oriented pattern of consumption. Hard work and thrift are punished, so economic actors naturally respond by spending more, borrowing more, and saving less. After all, why save rapidly depreciating dollars?


We must also remember that those policymakers who exercise the most power over the economy are also the least likely to understand the effects of their policies. Chairman Bernanke and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee were convinced in mid-2008 that the economy would rebound and continue to grow through 2009, even though it was clear to many observers that we were in the midst of a severe economic crisis. Chairman Greenspan before him was known for downplaying the importance of the growing housing bubble, even while it was reaching its zenith. It remains impossible for even the brilliant minds at the Fed to achieve both the depth and breadth of knowledge necessary to enable centralized economic planning. As Friedrich von Hayek stated in his Nobel Prize address:

経済に一番影響力を持っている中央銀行の政策立案者たちですが、自分たちの政策がどのような影響を与えるかということを多分一番理解していないのが彼ら自身です。2008年の半ばに、多くの人たちは自分たちが深刻な経済危機の真っ只中にいることを理解していたにも関わらず。バーナンキ議長とFOMCの他のメンバーの人たちは、経済が回復して2009年にかけて成長し続けると確信していました。彼の前のグリーンスパン議長は拡大する住宅バブルが頂点に達した時でもその重要性を軽視したことで有名です。ということは、中央銀行の中で一番頭のいい人たちであっても集中管理された経済の計画を、間違いなく立てて成功させることが不可能であるということになります。Friedrich von Hayekがノーベル賞受賞の挨拶で言いました:

"The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society – a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals."

March 18, 2011




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私達は世界的に貯蓄層を絶滅に追いやっています。 ジム・ロジャーズ 2013年3月9日












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中央銀行の戦術が「悪い形で終わることになる」 ジム・ロジャーズ 2013年2月14日



















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ジム・シンクレア 2013年2月11日

There Is No Way…


February 11, 2013, at 12:45 pm

My Dear Friends,


There is no way that any entity, be it private, public or both, is going to manipulate away the debt situation faced today.


There is no way that the US is going to become a net exporter of energy in amounts that could even slow down this rate of growth in the debt.


There is no way this flat line recovery is going to turn into a boom in business.


There is no way that the unemployment figures are going to have a sustained improvement short of all the unemployed giving up hope and shifting to the underemployed list.


There is no way that you can set such records in increased liquidity and not have explosion inflation regardless of business activity.


There is no way that the Fed can liquidate its holdings of treasuries in an orderly manner without collapsing the Treasury market.


There is no way the Fed can liquidate any toxic paper it took on from banks internationally in the crisis of 2008.


There is no way the Fed can step away from QE which would mean higher interest rates without collapsing the flat line so called economic recovery.


There is no way any human being could answer thousands of emails that are now overwhelming me.


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UFO:  信じる
自由: 賛成
平和: 賛成
自然エネルギー: 賛成
本:  わら一本の革命